Friday, August 31, 2012
Just Apologize, Climate Scientists
The wattsupwiththat site has yet another go at "constraining" the carbon dioxide "climate sensitivity", from a renowned member of the English peerage, to which I have responded:
The basic fact is, the global temperature record over the last century and more -- and many "skeptics" have pointed this out, with graphs -- shows global cooling from about 1880 to 1910, warming from about 1910 to 1940, cooling again from 1940 to 197(5), and warming again from 1975 to near 2000 (and now cooling again). There is even a well-known theory about this (involving multidecadal ocean oscillations, on top of an apparent recovery from the so-called Little Ice Age, since the 17th century). A good number of researchers have pointed out that the CO2 atmospheric concentration has gone up throughout that period, and have reasonably claimed that therefore CO2 cannot be blamed for the up and down temperature record. Believers -- and that is all they are, believers -- only muddy the debate with their attempts to distinguish between "forcings" and "feedbacks", in that up and down temperature situation.
The period 1960 to 2008, considered by Christopher Monckton here, is from the middle of a cooling period to a little past the end of a warming period, so temperatures have gone both up and down in that period, while CO2 has definitely continued to rise. Does he think this is an optimal test of CO2 "forcing"? In this, he is ignoring a basic fact in the longer temperature record that speaks against any CO2-driven "climate sensitivity" at all, and apparently finds what so many others have pointed out, simply from looking at those wider up and down periods: That the temperature is NOT driven by CO2, period. I think they did by simple observation better than Mr. Monckton has done here with the sorts of naive equations (dT = λ dF) favored by the incompetent consensus scientists. "Lukewarm" believers like him curry (whoa -- Judith Curry is another one) to the consensus theory, instead of decisively breaking with it, as they should.
If you ignore the simple evidence of the up and down temperature record vs. the monotonically rising CO2 -- solely in order to maintain there is, there MUST BE, a "greenhouse effect", of increasing temperature with increasing atmospheric CO2 -- then you are all too likely, in your fevered belief in that dogma, to dismiss any claims of definitive disproof of that effect. How could such disproof have been missed, by all of climate science, all these years? If, on the other hand, you don't ignore the ample, indeed overwhelming and simple, evidence just noted, against the greenhouse effect, put forward time and time again, then you probably already know by now that there is such definitive evidence. The only trouble is, you will have to admit that climate scientists have been, and stubbornly continue to be, fundamentally deluded by their (clearly) false theories, and that there is therefore -- and regretfully, considering the attention of the world is focused upon it -- no competent climate science in the world today.
We all make mistakes, even embarrassing ones like this one of mine. But people need to start learning from their mistakes, rather than stubbornly passing them down to the next generation. There is no greenhouse effect, of increasing temperature with increasing CO2.