No Clear Thinking Among "Climate" Scientists

I have submitted the following comment to a post about the "global warming pause" on Dr. Roy Spencer's site (the link may not work, if Dr. Spencer did not allow it to appear):

"...when the next big warm El Nino occurs, the zero trend will end. And that’s exactly what happened, with the 2015-16 El Nino. A trend is very sensitive to what happens at the end of a time series, and a big (natural) warm blip from El Nino is just what the doctor ordered. No more zero trend."

Yet,

"You can’t build a case for human-caused warming by relying on natural warming!"

Dr. Spencer thinks the mere appearance of an El Nino ends the zero trend; but, generally speaking, that would depend upon what the temperature does after the end of the El Nino. If it goes right back to the "zero trend" level, then the zero trend continues; the El Nino is then just a bump in the road, soon enough forgotten. And as others have pointed out, the 2015-16 El Nino did not cause temperature to go higher than the 1998 one did (which is comparing "oranges to oranges", i.e. the maximum temperature at successive El Ninos, not the rise of a given El Nino compared to the trend preceding it, or succeeding it for that matter).

And "you can't build a case for human-caused warming by relying on natural warming" logically implies you can't build a case (for human-caused warming from observation of the "end of the zero trend") by relying on the temporary natural warming due to an El Nino.

So the two quotes of Dr. Spencer's above are at odds with one another. The first should be recognized as generally not true (unless the world does not recover from the El Nino; and though I stopped following the temperature reports, I don't believe the current 0.27 C anomaly reported here is significantly above the "zero trend" level of recent years, as the 0.8+ of the El Nino surely was, but it's obviously now gone).

Just stop saying the zero trend, or "global warming pause", is over.

Planetary Rotation and Temperature: "Let go, Luke. Use the Force."

The Dr. Roy Spencer site has a post on "The Faster a Planet Rotates, the Warmer Its Average Temperature". My response:

As I have pointed out many times, for example here: The Venus/Earth temperature ratio, at points of equal pressure in the two atmospheres, over the full range of Earth tropospheric pressures, is essentially explained by the ratio of their solar distances alone (and precisely so both above and below the thick Venus cloud layer), despite a number of large differences in the two planet-plus-atmosphere situations that are assumed by climate scientists and their believers to affect the global mean temperature, but don't(!). (I won't repeat them all here, but Venus has 2400 times the concentration of carbon dioxide in its atmosphere as does Earth, with no effect, so the "greenhouse effect" is precisely zero.)

It is quite foolish to take the position that the supposed effects of all those differences between the Venus and Earth atmospheres simply cancel one another out, by "coincidence", entirely, and as precisely as my Venus/Earth comparison indicates they would have to do. I wrote a little about this last April, here. And adding yet another large difference, between Venus and Earth, to the list of supposed causes for their temperature difference, only makes the "coincidence" argument more ridiculous. The reality, that only solar intensity is effective, is quite clear, and quite simply explained, physically, by the hydrostatic condition, as I have written over and over again.

Now Dr. Spencer (who is well respected by the "skeptics" in the climate debates, for his satellite measurements of global temperature, showing little or no global warming) brings up planetary rotation as yet another variable supposedly affecting the global temperature. Yet Earth rotates in 1 day, while Venus rotates in 243 days--yet the Venus/Earth temperature ratio shows that huge difference, just like all the other huge differences between Venus and Earth, has NO EFFECT upon the temperature. The temperature-vs-pressure curves of Venus and Earth are the same, when just their different solar distances are taken into account, and nothing else.

So please, Dr. Spencer, and every other atmospheric or climate scientist, and every other believer in the current climate dogma: "Let go, Luke. Use the Force."

Dr. Spencer, It Is Simply the Hydrostatic Condition

The Dr. Roy Spencer site has a post, "The Warm Earth: Greenhouse Effect or Atmospheric Pressure?". For what it's worth, that is the wrong way to pose the question, between those for and against the greenhouse effect. But too many "skeptics" of consensus climate science make the same mistake, even now, nearly 6 years after my 2010 "Venus: No Greenhouse Effect" post. So I want to make the point yet again, as I have over and over, that it is not the atmospheric pressure at the bottom of the atmosphere that warms the atmosphere; it is the vertical pressure DISTRIBUTION, due to the hydrostatic condition of the troposphere, that produces the vertical TEMPERATURE distribution (the negative-lapse-rate structure) which governs the global mean temperature (at any given pressure level in the atmosphere, and for a given level of incident solar radiation).

So Dr. Spencer's question should be, "The Warm Earth: Greenhouse Effect or the Hydrostatic Condition?" And the answer, as my Venus/Earth temperatures comparison definitively shows, is the latter.

Incompetent Comments on UAH GMST Data

I do not take the fevered climate debate seriously anymore, since my definitive Venus/Earth temperatures comparison has not brought everyone to their senses, that the consensus is entirely incompetent in promulgating the carbon dioxide "greenhouse effect". But I still sometimes comment here and there. I just submitted the following comment to Dr. Roy Spencer's site, where he has posted the April 2012 update of UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) satellite data on global mean surface temperature anomaly:

The remarks here--especially the ones deducing continued global warming from obviously stalled data--indict the commenters as incompetent. Dr. Spencer, you do a disservice to any lay readers who stop by here and take these comments as serious scientific appraisal, by allowing these comments to go unanswered by you.

I wrote over a year ago that the global mean surface temp (GMST) would, according to the multidecadal ocean-oscillations theory, vary by a few tenths of a degree around an average +0.10°C for the next 5 years or more--and the average of your table here, from the beginning of 2011 to now, is +0.125. The only recent difference in the data is the magnitude of the swing, between successive maxima and minima--in years past, it was only .2 to .3°C, while in your table here, encompassing the last 3 such swings, it is more like .4 to .5°C, with an average of .426°C. So it's somewhat looser data recently, but it is not warming at all (and, as I have also written for over a year, the temperature is about where it was in 1991, over 20 years ago now).

There is no competent climate debate, because there are no competent climate scientists. It is all political maneuvering, lay readers, and you shouldn't take anyone's--any "expert"'s--word on anything in the "debate".